LAW 17
KEEP OTHERS IN SUSPENDED TERROR: CULTIVATE AN AIR
OF UNPREDICTABILITY
JUDGMENT
Humans are creatures of habit with
an insatiable need to see familiarity in other
people’s actions. Your predictability gives them a sense
of control. Turn the tables: Be deliberately unpredictable.
Behavior that seems to have no consistency or purpose
will keep them off-balance, and they will wear themselves
out trying to explain your moves. Taken to an extreme, this
strategy can intimidate and terrorize.
OBSERVANCE OF THE LAW
In May of 1972, chess champion Boris Spassky
anxiously awaited his rival Bobby Fischer in Reykjavik, Iceland.
The two men had been scheduled to meet for the World Championship
of Chess, but Fischer had not arrived on time and the match was on
hold. Fischer had problems with the size of the prize money,
problems with the way the money was to be distributed, problems
with the logistics of holding the match in Iceland. He might back
out at any moment.
Spassky tried to be patient. His Russian bosses
felt that Fischer was humiliating him and told him to walk away,
but Spassky wanted this match. He knew he could destroy Fischer,
and nothing was going to spoil the greatest victory of his career.
“So it seems that all our work may come to nothing,” Spassky told a
comrade. “But what can we do? It is Bobby’s move. If he comes, we
play. If he does not come, we do not play. A man who is willing to
commit suicide has the initiative.”
Fischer finally arrived in Reykjavik, but the
problems, and the threat of cancellation, continued. He disliked
the hall where the match was to be fought, he criticized the
lighting, he complained about the noise of the cameras, he even
hated the chairs in which he and Spassky were to sit. Now the
Soviet Union took the initiative and threatened to withdraw their
man.
The bluff apparently worked: After all the weeks of
waiting, the endless and infuriating negotiations, Fischer agreed
to play. Everyone was relieved, no one more than Spassky. But on
the day of the official introductions, Fischer arrived very late,
and on the day when the “Match of the Century” was to begin, he was
late again. This time, however, the consequences would be dire: If
he showed up too late he would forfeit the first game. What was
going on? Was he playing some sort of mind game? Or was Bobby
Fischer perhaps afraid of Boris Spassky? It seemed to the assembled
grand masters, and to Spassky, that this young kid from Brooklyn
had a terrible case of the jitters. At 5:09 Fischer showed up,
exactly one minute before the match was to be canceled.
The first game of a chess tournament is critical,
since it sets the tone for the months to come. It is often a slow
and quiet struggle, with the two players preparing themselves for
the war and trying to read each other’s strategies. This game was
different. Fischer made a terrible move early on, perhaps the worst
of his career, and when Spassky had him on the ropes, he seemed to
give up. Yet Spassky knew that Fischer never gave up. Even when
facing checkmate, he fought to the bitter end, wearing the opponent
down. This time, though, he seemed resigned. Then suddenly he broke
out a bold move that put the room in a buzz. The move shocked
Spassky, but he recovered and managed to win the game. But no one
could figure out what Fischer was up to. Had he lost deliberately?
Or was he rattled? Unsettled? Even, as some thought, insane?
After his defeat in the first game, Fischer
complained all the more loudly about the room, the cameras, and
everything else. He also failed to show up on time for the second
game. This time the organizers had had enough: He was given a
forfeit. Now he was down two games to none, a position from which
no one had ever come back to win a chess championship. Fischer was
clearly unhinged. Yet in the third game, as all those who witnessed
it remember, he had a ferocious look in his eye, a look that
clearly bothered Spassky. And despite the hole he had dug for
himself, he seemed supremely confident. He did make what appeared
to be another blunder, as he had in the first game—but his cocky
air made Spassky smell a trap. Yet despite the Russian’s
suspicions, he could not figure out the trap, and before he knew it
Fischer had checkmated him. In fact Fischer’s unorthodox tactics
had completely unnerved his opponent. At the end of the game,
Fischer leaped up and rushed out, yelling to his confederates as he
smashed a fist into his palm, “I’m crushing him with brute
force!”
In the next games Fischer pulled moves that no one
had seen from him before, moves that were not his style. Now
Spassky started to make blunders. After losing the sixth game, he
started to cry. One grand master said, “After this, Spassky’s got
to ask himself if it’s safe to go back to Russia.” After the eighth
game Spassky decided he knew what was happening: Bobby Fischer was
hypnotizing him. He decided not to look Fischer in the eye; he lost
anyway.
After the fourteenth game he called a staff
conference and announced, “An attempt is being made to control my
mind.” He wondered whether the orange juice they drank at the chess
table could have been drugged. Maybe chemicals were being blown
into the air. Finally Spassky went public, accusing the Fischer
team of putting something in the chairs that was altering Spassky’s
mind. The KGB went on alert: Boris Spassky was embarrassing the
Soviet Union!
The chairs were taken apart and X-rayed. A chemist
found nothing unusual in them. The only things anyone found
anywhere, in fact, were two dead flies in a lighting fixture.
Spassky began to complain of hallucinations. He tried to keep
playing, but his mind was unraveling. He could not go on. On
September 2, he resigned. Although still relatively young, he never
recovered from this defeat.
Interpretation
In previous games between Fischer and Spassky,
Fischer had not fared well. Spassky had an uncanny ability to read
his opponent’s strategy and use it against him. Adaptable and
patient, he would build attacks that would defeat not in seven
moves but in seventy. He defeated Fischer every time they played
because he saw much further ahead, and because he was a brilliant
psychologist who never lost control. One master said, “He doesn’t
just look for the best move. He looks for the move that will
disturb the man he is playing.”
Fischer, however, finally understood that this was
one of the keys to Spassky’s success: He played on your
predictability, defeated you at your own game. Everything Fischer
did for the championship match was an attempt to put the initiative
on his side and to keep Spassky off-balance. Clearly the endless
waiting had an effect on Spassky’s psyche. Most powerful of all,
though, were Fischer’s deliberate blunders and his appearance of
having no clear strategy. In fact, he was doing everything he could
to scramble his old patterns, even if it meant losing the first
match and forfeiting the second.
Spassky was known for his sangfroid and
levelheadedness, but for the first time in his life he could not
figure out his opponent. He slowly melted down, until at the end he
was the one who seemed insane.
Chess contains the concentrated essence of life:
First, because to win you have to be supremely patient and
farseeing; and second, because the game is built on patterns, whole
sequences of moves that have been played before and will be played
again, with slight alterations, in any one match. Your opponent
analyzes the patterns you are playing and uses them to try to
foresee your moves. Allowing him nothing predictable to base his
strategy on gives you a big advantage. In chess as in life, when
people cannot figure out what you are doing, they are kept in a
state of terror—waiting, uncertain, confused.
Life at court is a serious, melancholy game
of chess, which requires us to draw
up our pieces and batteries, form a plan, pursue it, parry that of our
adversary. Sometimes, however, it is better to take risks
and play the most capricious, unpredictable move.
up our pieces and batteries, form a plan, pursue it, parry that of our
adversary. Sometimes, however, it is better to take risks
and play the most capricious, unpredictable move.
Jean de La Bruyère, 1645-1696
KEYS TO POWER
Nothing is more terrifying than the sudden and
unpredictable. That is why we are so frightened by earthquakes and
tornadoes: We do not know when they will strike. After one has
occurred, we wait in terror for the next one. To a lesser degree,
this is the effect that unpredictable human behavior has on
us.
Animals behave in set patterns, which is why we are
able to hunt and kill them. Only man has the capacity to
consciously alter his behavior, to improvise and overcome the
weight of routine and habit. Yet most men do not realize this
power. They prefer the comforts of routine, of giving in to the
animal nature that has them repeating the same compulsive actions
time and time again. They do this because it requires no effort,
and because they mistakenly believé that if they do not unsettle
others, they will be left alone. Understand: A person of power
instills a kind of fear by deliberately unsettling those around him
to keep the initiative on his side. You sometimes need to strike
without warning, to make others tremble when they least expect it.
It is a device that the powerful have used for centuries.
Filippo Maria, the last of the Visconti dukes of
Milan in fifteenth-century Italy, consciously did the opposite of
what everyone expected of him. For instance, he might suddenly
shower a courtier with attention, and then, once the man had come
to expect a promotion to higher office, would suddenly start
treating him with the utmost disdain. Confused, the man might leave
the court, when the duke would suddenly recall him and start
treating him well again. Doubly confused, the courtier would wonder
whether his assumption that he would be promoted had become
obvious, and offensive, to the duke, and would start to behave as
if he no longer expected such honor. The duke would rebuke him for
his lack of ambition and would send him away.
The secret of dealing with Filippo was simple: Do
not presume to know what he wants. Do not try to guess what will
please him. Never inject your will; just surrender to his
will. Then wait to see what happens. Amidst the confusion and
uncertainty he created, the duke ruled supreme, unchallenged and at
peace.
Unpredictability is most often the tactic of the
master, but the underdog too can use it to great effect. If you
find yourself outnumbered or cornered, throw in a series of
unpredictable moves. Your enemies will be so confused that they
will pull back or make a tactical blunder.
In the spring of 1862, during the American Civil
War, General Stonewall Jackson and a force of 4,600 Confederate
soldiers were tormenting the larger Union forces in the Shenandoah
Valley. Meanwhile, not far away, General George Brinton McClellan,
heading a force of 90,000 Union soldiers, was marching south from
Washington, D.C., to lay siege to Richmond, Virginia, the
Confederate capital. As the weeks of the campaign went by, Jackson
repeatedly led his soldiers out of the Shenandoah Valley, then back
to it.
His movements made no sense. Was he preparing to
help defend Richmond? Was he marching on Washington, now that
McClellan’s absence had left it unprotected? Was he heading north
to wreak havoc up there? Why was his small force moving in
circles?
Jackson’s inexplicable moves made the Union
generals delay the march on Richmond as they waited to figure out
what he was up to. Meanwhile, the South was able to pour
reinforcements into the town. A battle that could have crushed the
Confederacy turned into a stalemate. Jackson used this tactic time
and again when facing numerically superior forces. “Always mystify,
mislead, and surprise the enemy, if possible,” he said, “... such
tactics will win every time and a small army may thus destroy a
large one.”
This law applies not only to war but to everyday
situations. People are always trying to read the motives behind
your actions and to use your predictability against you. Throw in a
completely inexplicable move and you put them on the defensive.
Because they do not understand you, they are unnerved, and in such
a state you can easily intimidate them.
Pablo Picasso once remarked, “The best calculation
is the absence of calculation. Once you have attained a certain
level of recognition, others generally figure that when you do
something, it’s for an intelligent reason. So it’s really foolish
to plot out your movements too carefully in advance. You’re better
off acting capriciously.”
For a while, Picasso worked with the art dealer
Paul Rosenberg. At first he allowed him a fair amount of latitude
in handling his paintings, then one day, for no apparent reason, he
told the man he would no longer give him any work to sell. As
Picasso explained, “Rosenberg would spend the next forty-eight
hours trying to figure out why. Was I reserving things for some
other dealer? I’d go on working and sleeping and Rosenberg would
spend his time figuring. In two days he’d come back, nerves
jangled, anxious, saying, ‘After all, dear friend, you wouldn’t
turn me down if I offered you this much [naming a substantially
higher figure] for those paintings rather than the price I’ve been
accustomed to paying you, would you?”’
Unpredictability is not only a weapon of terror:
Scrambling your patterns on a day-to-day basis will cause a stir
around you and stimulate interest. People will talk about you,
ascribe motives and explanations that have nothing to do with the
truth, but that keep you constantly in their minds. In the end, the
more capricious you appear, the more respect you will garner. Only
the terminally subordinate act in a predictable manner.
Image: The Cyclone. A
wind that cannot be fore
seen. Sudden shifts in
the barometer, in
explicable changes
in direction and
velocity. There is
no defense: A
cyclone sows
terror and
confusion.
wind that cannot be fore
seen. Sudden shifts in
the barometer, in
explicable changes
in direction and
velocity. There is
no defense: A
cyclone sows
terror and
confusion.
Authority: The enlightened ruler is so mysterious
that he seems to dwell nowhere, so inexplicable that no one can
seek him. He reposes in nonaction above, and his ministers tremble
below. (Han-fei-tzu, Chinese philosopher, third century B.C.)
REVERSAL
Sometimes predictability can work in your favor:
By creating a pattern for people to be familiar and comfortable
with, you can lull them to sleep. They have prepared everything
according to their preconceived notions about you. You can use this
in several ways: First, it sets up a smoke screen, a comfortable
front behind which you can carry on deceptive actions. Second, it
allows you on rare occasions to do something completely against the
pattern, unsettling your opponent so deeply he will fall to the
ground without being pushed.
In 1974 Muhammad Ali and George Foreman were
scheduled to fight for the world heavyweight boxing championship.
Everyone knew what would happen: Big George Foreman would try to
land a knockout punch while Ali would dance around him, wearing him
out. That was Ali’s way of fighting, his pattern, and he had not
changed it in more than ten years. But in this case it seemed to
give Foreman the advantage: He had a devastating punch, and if he
waited, sooner or later Ali would have to come to him. Ali, the
master strategist, had other plans: In press conferences before the
big fight, he said he was going to change his style and punch it
out with Foreman. No one, least of all Foreman, believed this for a
second. That plan would be suicide on Ali’s part; he was playing
the comedian, as usual. Then, before the fight, Ali’s trainer
loosened the ropes around the ring, something a trainer would do if
his boxer were intending to slug it out. But no one believed this
ploy; it had to be a setup.
To everyone’s amazement, Ali did exactly what he
had said he would do. As Foreman waited for him to dance around,
Ali went right up to him and slugged it out. He completely upset
his opponent’s strategy. At a loss, Foreman ended up wearing
himself out, not by chasing Ali but by throwing punches wildly, and
taking more and more counterpunches. Finally, Ali landed a dramatic
right cross that knocked out Foreman. The habit of assuming that a
person’s behavior will fit its previous patterns is so strong that
not even Ali’s announcement of a strategy change was enough to
upset it. Foreman walked into a trap—the trap he had been told to
expect.
A warning: Unpredictability can work against you
sometimes, especially if you are in a subordinate position. There
are times when it is better to let people feel comfortable and
settled around you than to disturb them. Too much unpredictability
will be seen as a sign of indecisiveness, or even of some more
serious psychic problem. Patterns are powerful, and you can terrify
people by disrupting them. Such power should only be used
judiciously.