THE ELEMENTS OF PREDICTION

1)    MEASURABILITY OF OUTCOME

 4 obvious, clear

 3 discoverable and shared definition

 1 discoverable, but fluid or inconsistent

 0 not measurable/undiscoverable

2)    VANTAGE

 3 perspective view

 2 proxy view

 0 obstructed or no view

3)    IMMINENCE

 4 imminent

 2 foreseeable

 0 remote

4)    CONTEXT

 3 fully revealed

 0 concealed

5)    PRE-INCIDENT INDICATORS

 5 several, reliable, detectable

 3 few, reliable, detectable

 0 unreliable or undetectable

6)    EXPERIENCE

 5 extensive with both outcomes

 3 with both outcomes

 2 one outcome

 0 elemental/partial/irrelevant

7)    COMPARABLE EVENTS

 4 substantively comparable

 1 comparable

 0 not comparable

8)    OBJECTIVITY

 2 believes either outcome is possible

 0 believes only one outcome or neither outcome is possible

9)    INVESTMENT

 3 invested in outcome

 1 emotionally invested in outcome

 0 uninvested in outcome

10)   REPLICABILITY

 5 easily replicable

 2 replicable by sample or proxy

 0 impractical or not replicable

11)   KNOWLEDGE

 2 relevant & accurate

 0 partial or inaccurate

This scale helps determine if a given prediction can be made successfully (which is distinct from whether it will be made successfully). To evaluate a prediction, answer the eleven questions described in chapter 6 by selecting from the range of possible answers above. Then add up the total points.

Note: The vantage question asks if the person making the prediction is in a position to observe the pre-incident indicators and context. If you can observe the situation and pre-incident indicators directly, then you have a Perspective View, but if you can only observe them through some medium (such as reports or other evidence), select Proxy View.

Following are some popular predictions, scored on the assumption that the person answering the question cares about the outcome and is as objective as possible:

(This prediction ranks higher than that of a regular guest because we all share a common definition of what it means for a comedian to do well: The audience laughs. The definition of what it means for a regular guest to do well is more fluid—the audience could be informed, amused, or moved. This prediction also scores higher because a comedian’s performance can be replicated with another audience first.)