Acknowledgments ix

Introduction 1

TO 1200: BEGINNINGS

1. The Winds of the Greeks and the Role of the Dice 11

2. As Easy as I, II, III 23

1200-1700: A THOUSAND OUTSTANDING FACTS

3. The Renaissance Gambler 39

4. The French Connection 57

5. The Remarkable Notions of the Remarkable Notions Man 73

1700-1900: MEASUREMENT UNLIMITED

6. Considering the Nature of Man 99

7. The Search for Moral Certainty 116

8. The Supreme Law of Unreason 135

9. The Man with the Sprained Brain 152

10. Peapods and Perils 172

11. The Fabric of Felicity 187

1900-1960: CLOUDS OF VAGUENESS AND THE DEMAND FOR PRECISION

12. The Measure of Our Ignorance 197

13. The Radically Distinct Notion 215

14. The Man Who Counted Everything Except Calories 231

15. The Strange Case of the Anonymous Stockbroker 247

DEGREES OF BELIEF: EXPLORING UNCERTAINTY

16. The Failure of Invariance 269

17. The Theory Police 284

18. The Fantastic System of Side Bets 304

19. Awaiting the Wildness 329

Notes 339

Bibliography 353

Name Index 365

Subject Index 369