Unsuccessful Attacks Outside the U.S.

(The cases analyzed for this category appear in Section 1D.)

Number: We analyzed 165 attacks in which a public figure outside the United States was attacked, and escaped unharmed.

Status of Target: The 165 attacks involved 45% heads of state (president, Pope, king, prime minister, etc.); 28% other government officials (ambassador, minister, vice president, etc.); 10% state and local officials (governor or mayor); 9% national figures (first lady, political official, etc.); 4% members of Parliament; 2% court officials; 1% business executives; and 1% movie/sports/media celebrities. In 90% of the incidents, the target was a government official.

Mortality: None of the public figures were killed or injured.

Assailants: 53% involved a single assailant, and 47% involved more than one assailant.

Weapon: 48% involved explosive devices (bomb, grenade); 40% involved long guns (rifle, shotgun, assault weapon); 5% involved handguns; 4% involved knives; 3% involved vehicles as weapons; and 1% involved mobs. Combining handguns and long guns, 45% of the attacks involved firearms. Of the 77 incidents involving bombs, 2.5% of these weapons were delivered in the mail.

Range: In the 74 attacks involving firearms or rocket projectiles, 89% were launched from more than 25 feet, and only 11% occurred at close range (fewer than 25 feet). The longest distance was a rocket attack from two miles away.

Duration: In the 81 attacks involving firearms, knives, and rocket projectiles, 62% of the attacks lasted longer than five seconds, and 38% were over in fewer than five seconds.

Situation: 91% occurred outdoors, and 9% occurred indoors. In addition, 51% occurred while the target was seated in, or riding in a vehicle, 29% of the attacks occurred at the target's home or residence, and 4% occurred while the target was moving to or from a vehicle or a building (arrivals and departures). Considering when the target was in or around a vehicle, 55% of the attacks occurred during those situations.

STARS: In 57% of the cases it was clear that some benefit arose from protector action or strategies during the attack. Among these cases in which protector actions or strategies clearly had an important and favorable influence on safety, the benefit arose approximately 52% of the time from direct protector action at the scene of the incident, and 48% of the time, the benefit was the result of protective strategies or resources at the scene (e.g., effective positioning, an armored car, advance arrangements, logistics, weapons detection, deterrence).

Conclusion: Attacks on public figures outside the United States, in which the target escaped unharmed, occur rather often. The preferred weapon was an explosive device, including roadside bombs, rockets, and hand grenades. The majority of the attacks were carried out from further than 25 feet, indicating that distance played a role in the failure of the attack. The majority of attacks lasted more than five seconds, probably due to the distances involved, giving bodyguards more time to react in many of the attacks. The majority of the attacks occurred outdoors. Most of the attacks occurred while the target was in or around a vehicle. About one-third of the attacks occurred at the target's home or office. It is apparent that at least 23% of these attacks were made unsuccessful by alert security personnel and effective security responses.