12
Tomorrow
Where do we stand today?
Will man dominate space one day?
Did unknown beings from the infinite reaches of the
cosmos visit the earth in the remote past?
Are unknown intelligences somewhere in the universe
trying to make contact with us?
Is our age, with its discoveries that are taking
the future by storm, really so terrible?
Should the most shattering results of research be
kept secret?
Will medicine and biology discover a way of
restoring deep-frozen men to life?
Will men from earth colonize new planets?
Will they mate with the inhabitants they find
there?
Will men create a second, third, and fourth
earth?
Will special robots replace surgeons one day?
Will hospitals in the year 2100 be spare-part
stores for defective men?
Will it become possible in the distant future to
prolong man’s life indefinitely with artificial hearts, lungs,
kidneys, etc.?
Will Huxley’s Brave New World come true one
day in all its improbability and chilling inhumanity?
A compendium of such questions could easily get as
big as the New York telephone directory. Not a day passes without
something brand new being invented somewhere in the world—every day
another question can be struck from the list of impossibilities as
answered. Edinburgh University received a preliminary grant of
$6,480,000 from the Nuffield Trust for the development of an
intelligent computer. The prototype of this computer was put into
conversation with a patient, and afterward the patient would not
believe that he had been talking to a machine. Dr. Donald Michie,
who designed this computer, claimed that his machine was beginning
to develop a personal life.
The new science is called futurology! Its goal is
the planning and detailed investigation and understanding of the
future by all the technical and mental means available. Think tanks
are springing up all over the world; what they amount to are
monasteries of scientists of today, who are thinking for tomorrow.
There are 164 of these think tanks at work in America alone. They
accept commissions from the government and heavy industry. The most
celebrated think tank is the Rand Corporation at Santa Monica in
California. The U.S. Air Force was responsible for its foundation
in 1945. The reason? High-ranking officers wanted a research
program of their own on intercontinental warfare. Some 850 selected
scientific authorities now work in the two-story magnificently
laid-out research center. The first ideas and plans for the
foundations of mankind’s most improbable adventures are born here.
As early as 1946 Rand scientists evaluated the military usefulness
of a spaceship. When Rand developed the program for various
satellites in 1951, it was called Utopian. Since Rand has been
functioning, the world can thank this research center for 3,000
accurate accounts of hitherto unobserved phenomena. Rand scientists
have published more than 110 books, which have advanced our culture
and civilization immeasurably.
There is no end in sight to this research work, and
there is unlikely to be one.
Similar work for the future is being done in the
following institutes: The Hudson Institute at Harmon-on-Hudson, New
York; the Tempo Center for Advanced Studies belonging to General
Electric at Santa Barbara, California ; the Arthur Little Institute
at Cambridge, Massachusetts, and the Battelle Institute at
Columbus, Ohio.
Governments and big business simply cannot manage
without these thinkers for the future. Governments have to decide
on their military plans far in advance; big businesses have to
calculate their investments for decades ahead. Futurology will have
to plan the development of capital cities for a hundred or more
years ahead.
Equipped with present-day knowledge, it would not
be difficult to estimate, say, the development of Mexico for the
next fifty years. In making such a forecast, every conceivable fact
would be taken into account, such as the existing technology, means
of communication and transport, political currents, and Mexico’s
potential opponents. If this forecast is possible today, unknown
intelligences could certainly have made such a forecast for the
planet Earth 10,000 years ago.
Mankind has a compulsive urge to think out in
advance and investigate the future with all the potentialities at
its command. Without this study of the future, we would probably
have no chance of unraveling our past. For who knows whether
important clues for the unraveling of our past do not lie around
the archaeological sites, whether we do not trample them heedlessly
under foot because we do not know what to make of them.
That is the very reason why I advocated a “Utopian
archaeological year.” In the same way that I am unable to “believe”
in the wisdom of the old patterns of thought, I do not ask others
to “believe” my hypothesis. Nevertheless, I expect and hope that
the time will soon be ripe to attack the riddle of the past without
prejudice—making full use of all the refinements of
technology.
It is not our fault that there are millions of
other planets in the universe.
It is not our fault that the Japanese statue of
Tokomai, which is many thousands of years old, has modern
fastenings and eye apertures on its helmet.
It is not our fault that the stone relief from
Palenque exists.
It is not our fault that Admiral Piri Reis did not
burn his ancient maps.
It is not our fault that the old books and
traditions of human history exhibit so many absurdities.
But it is our fault if we know all this but
disregard it and refuse to take it seriously.
Man has a magnificent future ahead of him, a future
which will far surpass his magnificent past. We need space research
and research into the future and the courage to tackle projects
that now seem impossible. For example, the project of concerted
research into the past which can bring us valuable memories of the
future. Memories which will then be proved and which will
illuminate the history of mankind—for the blessing of future
generations.