“Already De Gaulle has largely disappeared”.
Interview With Raymond Aron, A Leading French Analyst
U. S. News & World Report
12 mai 1969
At Paris
Q Professor Aron, what fundamental changes, if
any, can be expected in France, now that General de Gaulle is
out?
A
It is a question relatively difficult to answer, because the
probability is that a Gaullist will be elected after De Gaulle. So
your question comes to, What will be the difference between
Gaullism without De Gaulle and Gaullism with De Gaulle?The movement called Gaullist is so
intimately linked with the personality of De Gaulle that the
departure of the personality means a sort of mutation in what is
called Gaullism.
In all probability the present majority,
the Gaullist majority in the National Assembly, will stay. In all
probability the next President of Republic will be Georges
Pompidou, who was created as a political figure by De Gaulle even
though relations between the two men have been slightly tense since
the crisis [of riots and strikes] last May.
One thing will disappear: That is the
beautiful theater–the art of speaking, of acting out literature.
What will disappear is the charisma of a unique man. What will
disappear is the poetry of Gaullism.
But you know, below the poetry of De
Gaulle, the day-to-day running of the state and the management of
its economic affairs went on in a traditionally French way, with
pressure groups competing for influence just the way they did under
the Third and Fourth Republics. So the fundamental change will be
in the eyes of the people. It will be from poetry to prose–from a
historical hero to an ordinary man.
Q Will there be a change in priorities now,
such as more emphasis on economic problems at home?
A
With or without De Gaulle, the problems of the coming months were
to be economic ones, and even De Gaulle began to feel the pressure.
After the May crisis of last year, the frame was in trouble and the
problem of economic balance had become very difficult. Even De
Gaulle had to take measures which were distasteful to him.I would venture to suggest that the
problems De Gaulle was facing influenced his decision to risk a
referendum, because the future was not so terribly attractive to
him. He was interested in a kind fundamental, ideological reform of
French society. Pompidou will be fundamentally interested in
improving the economic situation and bringing French political life
back to a more normal state.
Q What about foreign policy?
A
Pompidou will not change French foreign policy overnight. I believe
the main lines of French foreign policy will remain the same for a
time.But Pompidou will be slightly more European
than De Gaulle. He will not be able to use, in relations with the
Germans, the Italians and the British, the same sort of abrupt
style which was part of De Gaulle’s charm for his supporters, and
which caused irritation among his adversaries.
Q Do you think the franc is in more trouble
now?
A
It is an open question whether devaluation of the franc will at
some future date become necessary. But there is no immediate reason
for it, no urgency.It is also a question of revaluation of the
[West German] mark. It seems to me that the revaluation of the mark
is extremely probable after the German elections in the autumn, and
at that time there may be the necessity of having a small
devaluation of the franc in relation to the dollar.
But if everything goes normally there
should be no immediate danger, and it is not excluded that people
with money will have more confidence in Pompidou than they did in
General de Gaulle. After all, one of the reasons for De Gaulle’s
defeat was that half of the French middle class, especially people
responsible for the economic life of the country, had lost their
confidence in De Gaulle.
It is perfectly possible, you know, that
the first phase after De Gaulle will be much easier than commonly
believed. We already know the Communist Party is firmly determined
not to create any trouble, and there is no sign, for the time
being, that the ordinary Frenchman is being terrified by De
Gaulle’s adversaries.
We are speaking only days after the
referendum, and already De Gaulle has largely disappeared. Nobody
quotes him or talks about him anymore. The mourning period was one
day, and then it was candidacy of Pompidou.
You know, politics is a dirty business, and
ingratitude is the definition of a great people.
Q When you say Pompidou will generally follow
the main lines of De Gaulle’s foreign policy, what do you mean?
Didn’t De Gaulle’s policy often shift direction through the
years?
A
I’m not so convinced of that. De Gaulle had a permanent philosophy
of international relations, namely, a philosophy of permanent
conflict. For him, the world was a jungle, and nation states were
cold monsters. He believed in the nation states and their absolute
sovereignty.So his philosophy was permanent, and from
this philosophy he deduced the necessity for opportunistic
attitudes, because in a jungle you have to adapt to the
situation.
In spite of all the changes, he had
permanent goals–the maximum of independence from the United States
without losing security which comes from American involvement in
Europe. In regard to the Soviet Union, he always tried to have good
relations with Eastern states, sometimes more with Poland and
Rumania, sometimes more with the Soviet Union. It all depended on
the situation.
What he did not want was to be a prisoner
of Western Europe and to be a satellite of the United States. And
that was the permanent energy which expressed itself in words like
national independence.
I think Pompidou will use the same words,
like national independence, but I’m inclined to believe from what I
know of Pompidou that he’s aware that great policy is impossible
for second-rate states like Western Germany, Italy and France, and
so he would be willing to go more in the direction of closer
European co-operation if it’s still possible. By that I mean, if
the Germans still are ready for that–which is not certain at
all.
Q Do you expect France to continue the
trend-begun even before De Gaulle left power–of improving
co-operation with the North Atlantic Treaty Organization?
A
Yes, I would say that, after the Czech experience, the French
military people–without believing very much in the danger of a
Russian invasion–thought that it would be reasonable to take care
of the improbable hypothesis that the Russians would like to do
something in Western Europe.If you assume, which seems reasonable, that
the only military danger, if there is one, comes from the East,
it’s better to have closer military contacts with NATO without
fundamentally changing policy. Recently the Chief of the General
Staff wrote an article which was something like a return to the
theory of flexible response in nuclear strategy.
You know, we professors have discovered
that when a state has a very limited nuclear force it always speaks
about massive retaliation. But when it has a little bit more and
the possibility of a choice, it begins to speak more sensibly, and
says, “Of course you cannot threaten massive retaliation if one
soldier crosses the line.”
Q Is there also a trend in France now toward
closer relations with the United States?
A
Yes, that tendency already started before the departure of General
de Gaulle. It was largely the result of the May crisis of last year
on the one hand and the personality of Nixon on the other. Perhaps
the Russian invasion of Czechoslovakia also played a part.The events of May, 1968, made French
currency precarious, so the policy of asking for the reform of the
international monetary system lost a great deal of its credibility
while the franc was threatened.
The Russian invasion of Czechoslovakia
showed very clearly there was no chance of having a liberal, united
Europe from the Atlantic to the Urals, at least during the lifetime
of De Gaulle in power.
Thirdly, you know, De Gaulle was very good
as a forecaster of American policy. He always believed in the
future of Nixon. He received Nixon at the Elysées Palace at the
time when Nixon was at the low point of his career. So Nixon felt a
certain gratitude to De Gaulle, and De Gaulle felt a fatherly
liking for the good boy who had become President of the United
States.
So all that brought about the
rapprochement
between France and the United States without closing the gap
between the main conceptions of the United States and France–if the
United States still has any clear conception about international
relations with Mr. Nixon as President, which is a debatable
point.Q Does the De Gaulle retirement mean Britain
has a better chance of getting into the Common Market?
A
If Pompidou is the next President–which still is not certain, even
though it is probable–he will slowly take a certain distance from
the Gaullist line of foreign policy. But in the initial phase he
will maintain something of a continuity, using the same
words.As regards Britain, it is a very difficult
problem, because the main point of De Gaulle’s argument was that
Britain cannot enter the Common Market without changing it
fundamentally. And that seems to me a very good point–and a true
one. De Gaulle’s main point was that either we stay in the Common
Market without changing it, or we accept Britain and others in a
looser economic organization.
My guess is that Pompidou will take the
same line. Wanting to be more European, Pompidou should try first
to restore the Common Market, which means finding a way out of the
agricultural impasse and possibly also finding some form of
political organization of the Six [France, West Germany, Italy, the
Netherlands, Belgium, Luxembourg] before trying to come to terms
with Britain.
My guess is that first there will be an
effort to save the Common Market. That is the main problem now,
before you begin very difficult negotiations for the entry of Great
Britain.
I agree that, in all probability, in the
course of time the new team will be less rigidly French-minded,
less France-centered than De Gaulle was. I am inclined to believe
they will try to give new life to the European idea, if it is still
feasible. Great Britain will come second.
Where Pompidou is strong
Q Mr. Aron, is the Gaullist party now a
permanent part of French political life?
A
According to De Gaulle, nothing is permanent. If Pompidou is
elected next month, he has with him a very compact majority.
Pompidou, if elected, will be in for seven years. The Assembly runs
until 1973, so until then we will have a Gaullist President and a
Gaullist majority.The question you are really asking is
whether the Gaullist party will remain united. I would say “Yes”
for a very simple reason: The present majority in the Assembly was
elected as much through Mr. Pompidou as through General de Gaulle,
and that was the key reason De Gaulle wanted the referendum.
Nobody could be sure to what extent the
Gaullist election victory last June was a victory of De Gaulle
personally or the success of Pompidou or the success of just fear.
The present majority recognizes itself as much in Pompidou as in De
Gaulle. A large part of the Gaullist party has for many months
preferred Pompidou to De Gaulle. Pompidou is really the expression
of the Gaullist party today.
I do not believe Mr. Pompidou is a man of
great dreams. He is a man of great will.
Q How do you see the role of the Presidency in
France now?
A
There is a good chance that if the next President is Pompidou he
will be able to maintain to a large extent the tradition created by
De Gaulle-namely, that the focus of power is the Presidency of the
Republic.Being elected by universal suffrage and
with a strong majority in the Assembly, he will be able to take a
man as Prime Minister who will not be a rival.
Q Do you think that is good for French
stability?
A
It is. Nobody can be sure that in 1973, after the next election,
there still will be the same compact coherence in the Gaullist
majority. Clearly the danger of the system is the possibility of
conflict between the President and the majority of the
Assembly.Q Do you see France moving away from what has
been a pro-Arab neutrality in the Middle East toward a truer
neutrality?
A
My guess is that Pompidou or any succeeding Government would try to
take again a neutral position toward Israel and the Arab countries.
They would do this because I’m convinced it would be in the best
interests of France.But there is a great difficulty–that is,
going back on the embargo, you lose in one minute what you have won
in relation to Arab states and the underdeveloped world. After
losing so much on one side, it’s not a good idea to lose as much on
the other. So at least in the initial stage the change will be more
in the way the French Ambassador speaks at the four-power
conference in New York.
But in any case, the conference will bring
no results.
Q In broad terms, how do you see the political
evolution of France now? Will the French left again become a
force?
A
Ah, the poor French left will be permanently impotent as long as it
is divided between the Communist and the non-Communist left.The Socialist Party is an old one and a
decadent one, and the creation of a new one is a failure. And the
Communist Party is still there, still a force with hopes for the
future. They are a little frightened of the new left, which made
such an impact during the May crisis. But the Communist Party
already has recovered from the shock of May. The Communists are
today more powerful in the universities than before, more powerful
in the trade-unions than before. So they remain an important part
of French life, but without clear hopes for the foreseeable future
of coming to power.
Q Do you think that the malaise in France–the
unrest and dissatisfaction one felt–will continue? Will there be
more social disorders?
A
It may be that this malaise will go on, and I’m inclined to believe
that in one form or another there will be agitation, protest,
because that’s the style of democracy in this time of trouble. Look
what you have in the United States, and now this sort of creeping
French-style crisis in Italy.But it may be that with a more ordinary or
prosaic man in power, part of the malaise will disappear because
there will be more connection between the center of power–the
President and the Prime Minister–and what’s going on in the
country.
Errors De Gaulle made
Q Is it your view that the malaise before De
Gaulle resigned was linked with his lack of contact with the
people?
A
In my view it was partly created by the unfortunate choice of an
inexperienced Prime Minister, Couve de Murville, who needed time to
get used to the job. But it was due also to the fact that De Gaulle
had a conservative majority–and at the same time had grandiose,
vague, attractive and terrifying ideas of the fundamental reform of
society which did not appease the people of the left, but which
created a great deal of anxiety among the people of the
right.Nobody knew what he would do next, and he
lost the referendum probably because the people had the feeling
that today he is asking us to say “Yes” to all sorts of proposals
we are not able to judge. What will he ask next time?
So it’s not excluded that in normal times
the Pompidou regime will be more stable. But I do concede that, if
there’s an exceptional crisis like last May, it would be easier to
find a way out with De Gaulle than with Pompidou.
Like any Frenchman, I feel sad that De
Gaulle should go in this way, but I’m not sure that, politically,
it’s so bad for the country.